Good Call / Bad Call
Written on March 20, 2014
SAM OGRIZOVICH, CFP®

Good Call / Bad Call

On March 9th, 2009, the S&P 500 bottomed out at 677 to end a 17-month bear market. During those months, the stock index fell a total of 57%!

The American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey of stock investors. The survey during the week of March 4th, the week of the previously mentioned low, indicated that 70% of them were bearish, the highest the survey has ever recorded. That was a bad call.

The morning of March 10th, 2009, the day after the bear market low of 677, Financial Times journalist John Authers wrote that “perhaps the greatest reason for hope (for the US stock market) at present is that almost all hope seems to have been lost.” The author probably had no idea at the time how prescient this call was.

Investors who reacted to these market events by altering (i.e. selling) at the market low did not participate in the astounding market recovery over the last 5 years.

Source: Prudential’s By The Numbers March 10th Edition.


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